Five
years ago, in the World Scientists' Warning to Humanity,
1630 of the world's senior scientists sounded an unprecedented
warning:
"Human
activities inflict harsh and often irreversible damage on the
environment and on critical resources. If not checked, many
of our current practices put at serious risk the future that
we wish for human society and the plant and animal kingdoms".
Addressed
to political, industrial, religious, and scientific leaders, the
Warning demonstrated that the scientific community had reached
a consensus that grave threats imperil the future of humanity
and the global environment. However, over four years have passed,
and progress has been woefully inadequate. Some of the most serious
problems have worsened. Invaluable time has been squandered because
so few leaders have risen to the challenge.
The December
1997 Climate Summit in Kyoto, Japan, presents a unique opportunity.
The world's political leaders can demonstrate a new commitment
to the protection of the environment. The goal is to strengthen
the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change by agreeing to
effective controls on human practices affecting climate.
This they
can and must do, primarily by augmenting the Convention's voluntary
measures with legally binding commitments to reduce industrial
nations' emissions of heat-trapping gases significantly below
1990 levels in accordance with a near-term timetable. Over time,
developing nations must also be engaged in limiting their emissions.
Developed and developing nations must cooperate to mitigate climatic
disruption.
The biosphere
is a seamless web. Completion of an effective treaty at Kyoto
would address one of the most serious threats to the planet and
to future generations. It would set a landmark precedent for addressing
other grave environmental threats, many linked to climate change.
It would demonstrate that the world's leaders have now recognized,
in deeds and words, their responsibility for stewardship of the
earth.The
stark facts carry a clear signal:
There
is only one responsible choice --
to act now.
We, the signers
of this declaration, urge all government leaders to demonstrate
a new commitment to protecting the global environment for future
generations. The
important first step is to join in completing a strong and meaningful
Climate Treaty at Kyoto. We encourage scientists and citizens
around the world to hold their leaders accountable for addressing
the global warming threat. Leaders must take this first step to
protect future generations from dire prospects that would result
from failure to meet our responsibilities toward them.
The
Web of Environmental Effects
Atmospheric
Disruption
Predictions
of global climatic change are becoming more confident. A broad
consensus among the world's climatologists is that there is now
"a discernible human influence on global climate."
Climate change
is projected to raise sea levels, threatening populations and
ecosystems in coastal regions. Warmer temperatures will lead to
a more vigorous hydrologic cycle, increasing the prospects for
more intense rainfall, floods, or droughts in some regions. Human
health may be damaged by greater exposure to heat waves and droughts,
and by encroachment of tropical diseases to higher latitudes.
The developing
world is especially vulnerable to damage from climatic disruption
because it is already under great stress and has less capacity
to adapt.
Climate
Change: Linkages
and Further Damage
Destructive
logging and deforestation for agriculture continue to wreak havoc
on the world's remaining tropical forests. The burning of the
Amazonian rain forests continues largely unabated. Other forests
in developed and developing nations are under heavy pressure.
Destruction of forests greatly amplifies soil erosion and water
wastage, is a major source of loss of species, and undermines
the environment's natural ability to store carbon. It releases
additional carbon to the atmosphere, thereby enhancing global
warming.
Fossil-fueled
energy use is climbing, both in industrial nations and in the
developing world, adding to atmospheric carbon. Efforts to enhance
energy conservation and improve efficiency are much hindered by
low energy costs and by perverse incentives that encourage waste.
Without firm commitments, most industrial nations will not meet
the carbon-emission goals they agreed to at the 1992 Rio conference.
The transition to renewable, non-fossil-carbon-based energy sources
is feasible but is not in sight for lack of aggressive political
will. The insurance industry has recognized the risks posed by
climate change. Leading economists have identified viable policies
for reducing these risks. Markets undervalue ecosystems worldwide
and inflict few penalties against practices that do long-term
environmental and resource damage. Political leadership must introduce
incentives that reward sound practices.
Water Scarcity
and Food Security
Humanity now
uses over one-half of the total accessible freshwater runoff.
Freshwater is the scarcest resource in the Middle East and in
North Africa. Efforts to husband freshwater are not succeeding
there, in East Asia, or in the Pacific.
Global food
production now appears to be outpaced by growth in consumption
and population. There is broad agreement that food demand will
double by 2030. Most land suitable for agriculture is already
in production. Sub-Saharan Africa's increase in agricultural production
is one-third less than its population growth. The region now produces
80 percent of what it consumes, and per capita production is declining.
Projections indicate that demand for food in Asia will exceed
the supply by 2010.
Thus, food
consumption levels in many countries are likely to remain totally
inadequate for good nutrition. Widespread undernutrition will
persist unless extraordinary measures are taken to ensure food
for all, measures not now even contemplated by governments. Climate
change is likely to exacerbate these food problems by adversely
affecting water supplies, soil conditions, temperature tolerances,
and growing seasons.
Destruction
of Species
Climate change
will accelerate the appalling pace at which species are now being
liquidated, especially in vulnerable ecosystems. One-fourth of
the known species of mammals are threatened, and half of these
may be gone within a decade. Possibly one-third of all species
may be lost before the end of the next century.
Biodiversity
gives stability to the ecosystems that we are so dependent on,
enhances their productivity, and provides an important source
of new foods, medicines, and other products.
Introduction
of World Scientists Call for Action
Union of Concerned Scientists
2 Brattle Square
Cambridge, MA 02238-9105
ucs@ucsusa.org
Global-Warming.net
