Changing Climate Endangers Gulf States'
Valuable Natural Heritage

Top Scientists Say Region Must Plan Now
to Avert Economic and Environmental Impacts

by Union of Concerned Scientists

A comprehensive new study released today by leading university and government scientists in the Gulf States concludes that the combined impacts of global warming and pressure from human activities pose serious challenges to the region. The scientists find that climate change in the Gulf States will lead to more extreme rainfall events and longer dry periods, accelerating sea-level rise and increased coastal flooding, and northward extension of ranges of non-native plants and animals with the projected 3-7 degrees Fahrenheit temperature increase over the 21st century. The report foresees wide-ranging impacts, including more conflicts over fresh water and potential threats to the region's vital agriculture, forestry, shipping and tourism industries.

"Climate change will likely magnify the harmful side effects of human activity on the region's environment," said the lead author of the report, Dr. Robert Twilley of the University of Louisiana-Lafayette. "Our natural resources contribute over $160 billion a year to the region's economy. We must act now to protect our valuable heritage."

Confronting Climate Change in the Gulf Coast Region: Prospects for Sustaining Our Ecological Heritage is a joint effort by the Ecological Society of America and the Union of Concerned Scientists. Leading ecological scientists from the University of Louisiana-Lafayette, University of New Orleans, University of Alabama, Rice University, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, University of Florida, University of South Florida, and University of Miami wrote the report. One of the nation's top atmospheric scientists from Pennsylvania State University assisted with the study. The report represents the current state of scientific knowledge about the impacts of climate change on the Gulf Coast's unique environments. It draws on the research of the world's leading climate scientists, who have found that carbon pollution from power plants, vehicles and clearing forests is contributing to rising global temperatures and a changing climate.

According to the new report, global warming may intensify the region's historically variable and sometimes extreme climate, and threatens to undermine the efforts along the coast to restore wetlands and beaches. Accelerated sea-level rise together with local land subsidence could lead to substantially higher ocean levels by the end of the 21st century. Increased maximum summer temperatures and heat index increases could give rise to more frequent heat waves and more heat-related illnesses and deaths per year.

"This report is a wake-up call to everyone in the Gulf region that climate change is real and must be taken seriously," said Dr. Denise Reed from the University of New Orleans. "Problems with freshwater supplies for agriculture, industry, and urban areas are likely to get worse."

If the climate becomes drier in the future, a change in the intensity and frequency of wildfires is likely to result in severe impacts on the timber industry in the region. If the climate becomes wetter, on the other hand, the region's forestry industry could also be threatened by a higher incidence of pests such as the Southern pine bark beetle. Agriculture, crucial to the Gulf States' economy, might also have to deal with increased pest incidence, droughts, and fires. While fewer freeze events and higher carbon dioxide concentrations would have positive implications for the industry, the challenges to meet the water needs of crops will be increasingly serious, even if rainfall stays at current levels.

Public health in the region is not immune to the threats of a changing climate. Higher temperatures will lead to increased production of ground-level ozone, which, when combined with higher concentrations of air pollutants and higher pollen counts, could seriously compromise air quality. Higher water temperatures and increased salinity in estuarine waters could also increase viral and bacterial contamination of shellfish along the Gulf coast, negatively impacting the recreation and commercial fishing industries.

But the scientists say the outlook is not hopeless.

"Prudent steps now to protect our land and water resources can pay big dividends in the future," said Dr. Susanne Moser, Staff Scientist for the Union of Concerned Scientists. "Leaders from Corpus Christi to the Florida Keys should act without delay to minimize the impacts of climate change."

The report says the Gulf States can meet the challenge of global warming with a three-pronged approach: reducing emissions of carbon pollution, minimizing human stresses on ecosystems, and adapting to the challenges to come. Reducing the dependence on fossil fuels by developing clean energy sources would reduce global warming gas emissions and create jobs and new economic opportunities for region. By implementing the best practices in land and water resource use, policy-and decision-makers can minimize ecologically harmful side effects of climate change. And finally, elected officials and government leaders can plan ahead by increasing their flexibility and adaptive capacity in managing the state's precious water resources, agriculture, forests, ecosystems, and coasts.

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